Prognostication of companies’ personnel actual competencies as a pedagogical problem

Abstract

The article reveales the problem of loss of relevance of companies’ personnel training programs in the conditions of rapidly changing world. It is stressed that the time period from the identification the problem (f.e. disparity of personnel’s competencies) to creating the program, delivering the training, assessment of newly developed competencies can cause loss of relevance and with it – non optimal use of companies’ resources. So there is a necessity not only in identification of gaps between current and necessary level of competency but in prognostication of competencies. The potentiality of use the method of expert evaluation – foresight – to solve the above problem is analyzed in the article. This method is widely used on the level of states, companies to predict possible vectors of development in R&D, state policy ets., but less used in pedagogy. The main methods that was chosen and used in foresight sessions were: PEST analysis, retrospective analysis, extrapolation, method of critical incidents, nominal group technique. During the foresight sessions it was used both interactive forms and individual work. The groups of experts included heads of departments, CEOs, NGO leaders, university teachers to represent the variety of stakeholders. Experts analyzed requirements to the competencies in retrospection – five years ago, now days and, using the method of extrapolation – in five years. Besides as an analytical background they analyzed the political, economical, social and technological factors that course requirements to the personnel’s competencies.